Local Doctors Expect 3rd Wave of H1N1

MEMPHIS, Tenn. - The CDC says there is a lot of disease circulating, and the H1N1 swine flu virus seems to be a "younger person's flu." Here in the Mid-South, numbers aren't reflecting national trends. Doctors here say swine flu cases are slowing down, but it's not over.

Dr. Thomas Frieden, Director at the CDC, says "what we have today is essentially more virus, more vaccine, and more treatment."

The H1N1 virus is now widespread among 48 states. Dr. Frieden says some states are seeing a decrease in cases, especially in the Southeast.

Dr. Manoj Jain, an infectious disease specialist, says "a couple of weeks ago, I was seeing maybe a handful or more cases each day, now it's maybe one or two cases."

Dr. Jain says flu, both seasonal and H1N1, follow a wave pattern. After the initial H1N1 onset in early spring, the second wave came through the Mid-South shortly after school started. Doctors are expecting a third wave.

"The seasonal flu usually goes up during the January to February timeframe, so we will see what the mix of the H1N1 and the seasonal flu will be."

The CDC says they have confirmed 114 related deaths among children.

Dr. Frieden says "children are particularly high priority for prevention and treatment, this is a younger people's flu."

In H1N1, 90 percent of the deaths are in people under the age of 65. In Memphis, 3 children have died at Le Bonheur Children's Hospital from complications with H1N1 swine flu. Since the end of August, the children's hospital has admitted about 200 kids, and 26 were in intensive care. Doctors continue to urge the importance of vaccination.

According to Dr. Jain, "I think the best protection is to get vaccinated because we don't know, it's completely unpredictable what will happen."

The Memphis & Shelby County Health Department is offering both H1N1 shots and nasal spray free for children and high priority groups.

Also, the health department continues to update their flu hotline, (901) 379-H1N1 (4161).