Candidates Optimistic Despite Poll

NASHVILLE, Tenn. - The field is crowded for a special election for mayor of Memphis next week and the candidates seem confident despite a poll showing one of them far ahead, but there's considerable doubt that many voters will be energized enough to cast a ballot.

The seat became vacant when former longtime Mayor Willie Herenton resigned in the middle of his unprecedented fifth term to pursue a race for Congress.

With 25 candidates in the race, including former professional wrestler Jerry Lawler, a lot of issues have been tossed about. The most serious focus on spillover from Herenton's tenure, including how hard to pursue a consolidation of city and county governments and schools, how best to handle violent crime in the city of 670,000 people, how open city government has been and should be and what to do with the signature of the city skyline, The Pyramid.

A Mason-Dixon telephone survey conducted last month for The Commercial Appeal newspaper and WREG-TV polled 400 likely voters on 25 candidates running in the Oct. 15 special election to replace Willie Herenton, who was mayor for 18 years before announcing his resignation in June to focus on a race against U.S. Rep. Steve Cohen in next year's Democratic primary.

Shelby County Mayor A C Wharton was chosen by 45 percent of those surveyed, while Councilwoman Carol Chumney got 11 percent, Memphis Mayor Pro Tem Myron Lowery had 10 percent, and attorney Charles Carpenter received 5 percent. The poll, with a margin of error of plus or minus 5 points, showed 21 percent remained undecided.

The top vote-getter in Thursday's election wins even with less than a majority of votes cast, but the candidates trailing Wharton and political experts say the county mayor isn't a shoe-in because special elections usually have low voter turnout.

Lowery called the poll "a snapshot in time" and said it doesn't reflect his heavy campaigning since the poll to drum up voter support.

"We have over 400,000 registered voters in Memphis," Carpenter said. "They only polled 400 people."

Shelby County Election Commission administrator Richard Holden said about 160,000 people normally vote in a citywide election, but he's expecting much less than that for the special election based on early voting numbers.

Rhodes College political science professor Marcus Pohlmann said turnout is "notoriously low" in special elections.

"Presidential elections have our largest turnout, and it's still barely over 50 percent," he said. "So you're usually down to 20 or 30 percent of the vote for a regularly scheduled local election. If you have a special election, it could well be 10 to 15 percent of the electorate will turn out. So it really does become a get out the vote contest."

Rep. John Deberry, a Memphis Democrat familiar with all the candidates, agreed.

"The individual who is able to excite their ... constituencies and get them to the polls will be the next mayor of Memphis," he said.

Chumney, who lost to Herenton in a comparatively close race for the mayorship two years ago, said she's up for the challenge because she believes voters are ready "to elect the first woman mayor of this city."

"People are ready for change. I came within seven (percentage) points of winning in 2007," she said, adding that a similar Mason-Dixon poll at the time showed her far behind Herenton before the election.

Regardless of what the recent poll shows, however, Wharton campaign spokeswoman Tonya Meeks said he is not taking the race for granted.

"He's still continually out there working, trying to connect with the voters as much as possible," Meeks said. "Every vote is important to us."

Whoever wins on Oct. 15 will be finishing out the last two years of a mayorship filled with history and controversy.

In 1991, Herenton became the first black to be elected mayor and set a record in January when he was sworn in for a fifth four-year term.

His resignation came amid federal investigators questioning how he used extra money from a pricey annual Christmas party attended by prominent business people, The Commercial Appeal has reported.

The newspaper has reported that the money, acknowledged by Herenton's lawyer, is being scrutinized by FBI and IRS agents.